Running with the Bull Market

Stocks have experienced one of the longest running bull markets in U.S. history. The S&P 500 and DJIA have nearly tripled in value since March 2009. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 pushed above the 2100 level for the first time since December 2015, and the Dow has soared almost 2500 points since February of this year.

Many speculators suggest the bull market is aging. After a seven-year climb, up 30% and 11% in 2013 and 2014 respectively, the S&P 500 was virtually flat in 2015, signaling slower growth. Stocks took a plunge in February on fears of a global recession and depressed oil prices, leaving the S&P 500 up roughly 3% so far this year.

If speculators are correct and the bull market is entering the homestretch, history suggests it should be a good run. Research shows a fundamental uptick in equity prices this year, although muted to years past. Historical trends tell us the last two major bull markets have gone out with a bang, producing above-average final-year returns.